A Bayesian hierarchical nonhomogeneous regional flood model for New South Wales, Australia

Tom Micevski*, George Kuczera, Stewart W. Franks

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Long-term climate variability has been shown to affect flood frequency in New South Wales, Australia (Kiem et al., 2003). This study extends this work by developing a-Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting floods at ungauged locations. Flood records were stratified using a threshold value of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which characterises the low frequency component of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Southern Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the stratified flood distributions differ significantly with ratios of flood magnitudes being approximately 1.6 times greater during the IPO negative years. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the log-normal distribution fits the stratified flood records satisfactorily. The stratified flood records were then subjected to regional flood analysis using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. The regional model considers at-site floods to be spatially correlated via an intersite distance correlation function. The hierarchical model proposes that the parameters of the flood frequency distribution for any site are random samples from a regional probability model. This allows the inclusion of catchment characteristics, while also explicitly allowing for intersite variability. Model calibration was performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. An important outcome is the quantification of predictive uncertainty at an ungauged catchment.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2004 World Water and Environmetal Resources Congress
Subtitle of host publicationCritical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management
EditorsG. Sehlke, D.F. Hayes, D.K. Stevens
Pages1568-1577
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2004
Externally publishedYes
Event2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress: Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management - Salt Lake City, UT, United States
Duration: 27 Jun 20041 Jul 2004

Conference

Conference2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress: Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management
CountryUnited States
CitySalt Lake City, UT
Period27/06/041/07/04

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'A Bayesian hierarchical nonhomogeneous regional flood model for New South Wales, Australia'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this