A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes

Emily R. Potter; Catriona L. Fyffe; Andrew Orr; Duncan J. Quincey; Andrew N. Ross; Sally Rangecroft; Katy Medina; Helen Burns; Alan Llacza; Gerardo Jacome; Robert A. Hellstrom; Joshua Castro; Alejo Cochachin; Nilton Montoya; Edwin Loarte; Francesca Pellicciotti

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z

A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes

Emily R. Potter^*, Catriona L. Fyffe, Andrew Orr, Duncan J. Quincey, Andrew N. Ross, Sally Rangecroft, Katy Medina, Helen Burns, Alan Llacza, Gerardo Jacome, Robert A. Hellstrom, Joshua Castro, Alejo Cochachin, Nilton Montoya, Edwin Loarte, Francesca Pellicciotti

^*Corresponding author for this work

Geography and Environmental Sciences Department

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12 % precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75 % for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenario. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.

Original language	English
Article number	96
Journal	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z
Publication status	Published - 20 Jul 2023

Keywords

Andes
future climate
droughts
climate extremes
Peru glaciers

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41612-023-00409-zLicence: CC BY

s41612-023-00409-zFinal published version, 3.38 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Potter, E. R., Fyffe, C. L., Orr, A., Quincey, D. J., Ross, A. N., Rangecroft, S., Medina, K., Burns, H., Llacza, A., Jacome, G., Hellstrom, R. A., Castro, J., Cochachin, A., Montoya, N., Loarte, E., & Pellicciotti, F. (2023). A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, Article 96. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z

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title = "A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes",

abstract = "Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12 % precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75 % for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenario. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.",

keywords = "Andes, future climate, droughts, climate extremes, Peru glaciers",

author = "Potter, {Emily R.} and Fyffe, {Catriona L.} and Andrew Orr and Quincey, {Duncan J.} and Ross, {Andrew N.} and Sally Rangecroft and Katy Medina and Helen Burns and Alan Llacza and Gerardo Jacome and Hellstrom, {Robert A.} and Joshua Castro and Alejo Cochachin and Nilton Montoya and Edwin Loarte and Francesca Pellicciotti",

note = "Funding information: This research was conducted under the Peru GROWS and PEGASUS projects, which were both funded by NERC (grants NE/S013296/1 and NE/S013318/1, respectively) and CONCYTEC through the Newton-Paulet Fund. The Peruvian part of the Peru GROWS project was conducted within the framework of the call E031-2018-01-NERC ”Glacier Research Circles,” through its executing unit FONDECYT (Contract N°08-2019- FON-DECYT). ",

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AU - Potter, Emily R.

AU - Fyffe, Catriona L.

AU - Orr, Andrew

AU - Quincey, Duncan J.

AU - Ross, Andrew N.

AU - Rangecroft, Sally

AU - Medina, Katy

AU - Burns, Helen

AU - Llacza, Alan

AU - Jacome, Gerardo

AU - Hellstrom, Robert A.

AU - Castro, Joshua

AU - Cochachin, Alejo

AU - Montoya, Nilton

AU - Loarte, Edwin

AU - Pellicciotti, Francesca

N1 - Funding information: This research was conducted under the Peru GROWS and PEGASUS projects, which were both funded by NERC (grants NE/S013296/1 and NE/S013318/1, respectively) and CONCYTEC through the Newton-Paulet Fund. The Peruvian part of the Peru GROWS project was conducted within the framework of the call E031-2018-01-NERC ”Glacier Research Circles,” through its executing unit FONDECYT (Contract N°08-2019- FON-DECYT).

PY - 2023/7/20

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N2 - Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12 % precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75 % for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenario. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.

AB - Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12 % precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75 % for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenario. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.

KW - Andes

KW - future climate

KW - droughts

KW - climate extremes

KW - Peru glaciers

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