We propose a new model to predict the evolution of pavement skid-resistance due to traffic polishing. The model accounts for polishing (by coupling a contact model with a wear law equation) and friction mechanisms. The contact model considers the tire operating conditions (including load, speed, and slip ratio), the tire geometry and mechanical behavior of the rubber tread, the pavement texture, and the physical properties of contaminants (i.e. the thickness and viscosity of fluids). The wear law considers the types of aggregates in the pavements (particularly their mineralogical composition) and the pressure distribution within the tire/pavement contact area. The friction component considers the mechanical behavior of a rubber measuring pad, the operating conditions during pad/pavement contact, and the pavement texture. The new predictive skid resistance evolution model is a numerical computational code that resolves pavement texture topographies at different polishing stages and the corresponding skid resistance levels. The model outcomes have been validated against repeated profilometer measurements on three mosaic pavements made of different types of aggregates subjected to the “Wehner-Schulz” procedure (that polishes and measures friction). The modeled predictions performed well against the captured changes in pavement textures during the polishing process, with slight differences in their absolute values potentially due to probable limitations of the wear law. The ability to predict the evolution of pavement skid resistance has transformative potential for tailored forecasting and proactive interventions to be undertaken across road networks.