A policy-navigation framework for exploring hydrogen integration pathways in Great Britain towards net zero

Achieving Great Britain’s 2050 Net Zero target requires hydrogen policy that can remain effective under uncertain energy market conditions. This paper proposes a policy-navigation framework that combines a bi-level game-theoretic investment model based on Shapley value allocation with an integrated optimal power–gas-flow (OPGF) model to evaluate CO2 pricing and Contracts for Difference (CfD) mechanisms. We apply cooperative game theory to model the technical coupling among the 18 technology players. By using the Shapley value to allocate the resulting joint cost savings fairly, we can design coordinated policies (CfD and Carbon Pricing) that balance the macro-level trade-offs between investor returns (generators), public spending (government), and energy bills (consumers). Results show that while high CO2 prices effectively drive decarbonisation, they do not provide sufficient investment stability for hydrogen in low-price markets, highlighting the need for complementary CfD support. Using the Marginal Abatement Cost of Hydrogen (MACH) as a central evaluation metric, we identify an actionable policy corridor with CO2 prices of £200–300/tCO2 and CfD support of £100–200/MWh, balancing cost-effective decarbonisation with investment viability and fiscal performance. Additionally, the Interactive Policy Navigator (IPN) enables efficient exploration of 288 policy scenarios, translating high-dimensional quantitative results into accessible and actionable policy insights for policymakers.