A system dynamics model for visitor choice of tranport mode to and from National Parks

Concern is felt in a number of countries at the environmental impacts of increasing visitor numbers to national parks and other similar areas, where travel to, from and within the area is dominated by the private car. It is commonly desired to reduce these impacts by bringing about a change in mode of transport to more environmentally friendly forms. The consensus of opinion suggests that a balance of 'carrot and stick' initiatives is needed to bring about the desired change of mode. However in general these opinions remain to be tested in practice. For example, although attitudinal surveys of national park visitors suggest that a balance of "hard" and "soft" policies would induce behaviour change, these conclusions are not always reflected in subsequent behaviour. Clearly, one of the major problems facing transport practitioners is how best to predict the results or estimate the impacts of various initiatives and measures, which emerge as part of the process of formulating an overall transport policy. One way of testing such initiatives, short of actual implementation is to develop models of the situation. Unfortunately, in contrast with the extensive research and modelling applied to traffic management in urban areas, very few studies have been undertaken into rural transport modelling. This paper reports findings on work currently being undertaken, using system dynamics modelling as an alternative to existing approaches. System dynamics appears to offer a new and different way of examining the complex effects that the implementation of 'carrot' and 'stick' transport initiatives would have on visitor behaviour in national parks.