Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence

Emanuele Sironi; Franco Taroni; Claudio Baldinotti; Cosimo Nardi; Gian Aristide Norelli; Matteo Gallidabino; Vilma Pinchi

doi:10.1007/s00414-017-1733-0

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence

Emanuele Sironi^*, Franco Taroni, Claudio Baldinotti, Cosimo Nardi, Gian Aristide Norelli, Matteo Gallidabino, Vilma Pinchi

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

Purpose: The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. Methods: The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Results: Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1125-1138
Number of pages	14
Journal	International Journal of Legal Medicine
Volume	132
Issue number	4
Early online date	14 Nov 2017
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-017-1733-0
Publication status	Published - 1 Jul 2018
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Adult age estimation
Bayesian approach
Bayesian networks
Forensic age estimation
Pulp chamber volume narrowing
Secondary dentine deposition

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Sironi_IJLM-132-1125ssAccepted author manuscript, 901 KB

Cite this

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title = "Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence",

abstract = "Purpose: The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. Methods: The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Results: Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.",

keywords = "Adult age estimation, Bayesian approach, Bayesian networks, Forensic age estimation, Pulp chamber volume narrowing, Secondary dentine deposition",

author = "Emanuele Sironi and Franco Taroni and Claudio Baldinotti and Cosimo Nardi and Norelli, {Gian Aristide} and Matteo Gallidabino and Vilma Pinchi",

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AU - Sironi, Emanuele

AU - Taroni, Franco

AU - Baldinotti, Claudio

AU - Nardi, Cosimo

AU - Norelli, Gian Aristide

AU - Gallidabino, Matteo

AU - Pinchi, Vilma

PY - 2018/7/1

Y1 - 2018/7/1

N2 - Purpose: The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. Methods: The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Results: Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

AB - Purpose: The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. Methods: The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Results: Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

KW - Adult age estimation

KW - Bayesian approach

KW - Bayesian networks

KW - Forensic age estimation

KW - Pulp chamber volume narrowing

KW - Secondary dentine deposition

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EP - 1138

JO - International Journal of Legal Medicine

JF - International Journal of Legal Medicine

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ER -

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence

Abstract

Keywords

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