Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Suzanne Bevan*, Stephen Cornford, Lin Gilbert, Inés Otosaka, Daniel Martin, Trystan Surawy-Stepney

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Glaciology
Early online date14 Aug 2023
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 14 Aug 2023
Externally publishedYes

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