An Analysis of Activity-Level Predictability from UK Construction Projects

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Abstract

Project time-predictability and performance remains low in the construction sector. Any time improvements provide opportunities to increase project efficiency, profitability and success. In project planning and programming, performance is often measured at project-level. However, this work analyses predictability accuracy at activity-level to establish trends to focus future planning efforts and make prediction improvements. To that end; an aggregation of more than 35;000 lines of activity-level programme data were collected for analysis from 27 recent UK construction projects. Analysis of the activity-level programme data was completed relative to project type; project duration; level of detail; project-level performance; and time-predictability metrics. The analysis demonstrated large disparity between activity-level predictability; with more than one-third of all predictions failing to achieve start date; finish date; or duration accuracy; and less than one-third of predictions able to accurately forecast activity start dates. Here 63% of activities were able to predict positive project outcomes; but only 24% of activities were able to achieve perfect time-predictions. Correlation between positive activity-level predictability and overall project-level time-performance is evidenced. Therefore, increased analysis of activity-level planning provides the potential to improve project-level time-performance.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAssociation of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2024 - Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference
EditorsCraig Thomson, Christopher J Neilson
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherAssociation of Researchers in Construction Management (ARCOM)
Pages605-614
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780995546387
Publication statusPublished - 2 Sept 2024
Event40th Annual Conference on Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2024 - London, United Kingdom
Duration: 2 Sept 20244 Sept 2024

Conference

Conference40th Annual Conference on Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2024
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityLondon
Period2/09/244/09/24

Keywords

  • activity programme data
  • construction planning
  • hit-rates
  • planning effectiveness
  • time performance
  • time predictability

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