TY - JOUR
T1 - An empirical study of inbound tourism demand in China
T2 - a copula-GARCH approach
AU - Tang, Jiechen
AU - Ramos, Vicente
AU - Cang, Shuang
AU - Sriboonchitta, Songsak
PY - 2017/11/22
Y1 - 2017/11/22
N2 - This paper proposes new models for analyzing the volatility and dependence of monthly tourist arrivals to China applying a copula-GARCH approach. A desegregation of the top six origins of China inbound tourists from the period January 1994 to December 2013 is used in this study. The empirical results show that there is a strong seasonal effect in all cases and some habit persistence on monthly tourist arrival growth rate for South Korea, Russia, the United States (US), and Malaysia. Second, the volatilities of arrival growth rates to China are impacted significantly by their own short- and long-run effects, except for Russia and South Korea. Only short-run shock affects Russian arrivals while only long-run shocks are affecting South Korea arrivals. Third, the conditional dependence among different source countries is found to be positive and significant, but the conditional dependence for all considered pairs is low. Moreover, there is extreme co-movement (tail dependence) between the six major tourism source countries, suggesting the pairwise of international tourist arrivals shows a related increasing or decreasing pattern during extreme events. Implications are discussed and recommendations provided.
AB - This paper proposes new models for analyzing the volatility and dependence of monthly tourist arrivals to China applying a copula-GARCH approach. A desegregation of the top six origins of China inbound tourists from the period January 1994 to December 2013 is used in this study. The empirical results show that there is a strong seasonal effect in all cases and some habit persistence on monthly tourist arrival growth rate for South Korea, Russia, the United States (US), and Malaysia. Second, the volatilities of arrival growth rates to China are impacted significantly by their own short- and long-run effects, except for Russia and South Korea. Only short-run shock affects Russian arrivals while only long-run shocks are affecting South Korea arrivals. Third, the conditional dependence among different source countries is found to be positive and significant, but the conditional dependence for all considered pairs is low. Moreover, there is extreme co-movement (tail dependence) between the six major tourism source countries, suggesting the pairwise of international tourist arrivals shows a related increasing or decreasing pattern during extreme events. Implications are discussed and recommendations provided.
KW - conditional dependence
KW - copula-GARCH approach
KW - logarithm monthly tourist arrivals rate
KW - tail dependence
KW - Tourism demand
KW - tourist arrivals
KW - volatility
U2 - 10.1080/10548408.2017.1330726
DO - 10.1080/10548408.2017.1330726
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85020249463
SN - 1054-8408
VL - 34
SP - 1235
EP - 1246
JO - Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing
JF - Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing
IS - 9
ER -