Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Paul Goodwin*, M. Sinan Gönül, Dilek Önkal

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users' stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, (ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users' modifications of the provided forecasts, and (iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as 'best-case/worst-case' forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals, which reduced their calibration.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)354-366
Number of pages13
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume29
Issue number2
Early online date14 Nov 2012
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2013

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