Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

Rupert M. Gladstone; Victoria Lee; Jonathan Rougier; Antony J. Payne; Hartmut Hellmer; Anne Le Brocq; Andrew Shepherd; Tamsin L. Edwards; Jonathan Gregory; Stephen L. Cornford

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

Rupert M. Gladstone^*, Victoria Lee, Jonathan Rougier, Antony J. Payne, Hartmut Hellmer, Anne Le Brocq, Andrew Shepherd, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan Gregory, Stephen L. Cornford

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

77 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200. yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	191-199
Number of pages	9
Journal	Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Volume	333-334
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022
Publication status	Published - 1 Jun 2012
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Calibrated prediction
Ice sheet modelling
Marine ice sheet instability
Pine Island Glacier
West Antarctic ice sheet

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10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

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@article{654ca9d5f113468299139ae72e0d26d2,

title = "Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model",

abstract = "A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95\% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200. yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.",

keywords = "Calibrated prediction, Ice sheet modelling, Marine ice sheet instability, Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctic ice sheet",

author = "Gladstone, \{Rupert M.\} and Victoria Lee and Jonathan Rougier and Payne, \{Antony J.\} and Hartmut Hellmer and \{Le Brocq\}, Anne and Andrew Shepherd and Edwards, \{Tamsin L.\} and Jonathan Gregory and Cornford, \{Stephen L.\}",

year = "2012",

month = jun,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022",

language = "English",

volume = "333-334",

pages = "191--199",

journal = "Earth and Planetary Science Letters",

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publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

AU - Gladstone, Rupert M.

AU - Lee, Victoria

AU - Rougier, Jonathan

AU - Payne, Antony J.

AU - Hellmer, Hartmut

AU - Le Brocq, Anne

AU - Shepherd, Andrew

AU - Edwards, Tamsin L.

AU - Gregory, Jonathan

AU - Cornford, Stephen L.

PY - 2012/6/1

Y1 - 2012/6/1

N2 - A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200. yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

AB - A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200. yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

KW - Calibrated prediction

KW - Ice sheet modelling

KW - Marine ice sheet instability

KW - Pine Island Glacier

KW - West Antarctic ice sheet

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84861131423

U2 - 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

DO - 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84861131423

SN - 0012-821X

VL - 333-334

SP - 191

EP - 199

JO - Earth and Planetary Science Letters

JF - Earth and Planetary Science Letters

ER -

Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

Abstract

Keywords

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