Came and gone? A longitudinal study of the effects of COVID-19 on tourism purchasing intentions

The study is based on a multi-year research conducted in three successive years (2019; 2020; 2021). Drawing from three samples (N = 507; 463; 488) it longitudinally examines the complexity and the derived chaordic systems of the impact of COVID-19 upon the purchasing intentions of adult Athenian holidaymakers by using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. In doing so, it evaluates the simple conditions of impact of recession, destination selection, and price and quality risks, also progressing to a complementary examination through Necessary Condition Analysis. The findings generate three pathways (price-quality nexus; financial focus; destination orientation) leading to the same outcome (purchasing intentions), the hierarchy of which changed over time. They also highlight the impact of recession and quality risks as constant necessary conditions, and demonstrate the transformation over time of destination selection and price risks from influential to necessary. The contribution of the study lies in both the theoretical and methodological domains.