UK Government analysis has predicted the feed-in tariff policy (FIT) and Renewables Obligation (RO) will result in 2% of electricity supply from projects less than 5 MW installed capacity by 2020. Analysis of UK Government data (2000e2009) has identified failure of the RO to achieve targets for electricity supply from renewable energy sources. Is the predicted contribution of FIT projects also at risk? Green-X software is used to predict the installed capacity and generation of electricity projects in receipt of RO or FIT support. Results are compared with Government predictions within the FIT impact assessment and aspirational targets within the UK “Renewable Energy Strategy”.