Child versus adult probabilities of death and their effects on under-25 and total fertility: a test using over 30 years of panel data from 204 countries and territories

After presenting their two-tier model, Ellis, Reid & Kramer (2024) tentatively state that child mortality risk should predict offspring quantity, whilst adult mortality risk should accelerate reproductive timing. I test these assertions using mortality risk and fertility data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project for 204 countries and territories over 32 years, finding partial support for their predictions.