Classic Maya Response to Multi-Year Seasonal Droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico

Daniel H. James; Stacy A. Carolin; Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach; Julie A. Hoggarth; Fernanda Lases-Hernandez; Erin A. Endsley; Jason H. Curtis; Christina D. Gallup; Susan Milbrath; John Nicolson; James Rolfe; Ola Kwiecien; Christopher J. Ottley; Alexander A. Iveson; James U. L. Baldini; Mark Brenner; Gideon M. Henderson; David A. Hodell

Classic Maya Response to Multi-Year Seasonal Droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico

Daniel H. James^*, Stacy A. Carolin, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Julie A. Hoggarth, Fernanda Lases-Hernandez, Erin A. Endsley, Jason H. Curtis, Christina D. Gallup, Susan Milbrath, John Nicolson, James Rolfe, Ola Kwiecien, Christopher J. Ottley, Alexander A. Iveson, James U. L. Baldini, Mark Brenner, Gideon M. Henderson, David A. Hodell

^*Corresponding author for this work

Geography and Environmental Sciences Department

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Protracted droughts may have contributed to socio-political upheaval and depopulation of cultural centres in the Maya Lowlands during the Terminal Classic Period (c.800 – 1000 CE). Regional proxy climate records suggest multiple prolonged drought episodes during the Terminal Classic. The relationship between drought and response of individual sites, however, remains unclear because of large chronological uncertainties and poor temporal resolution of existing local palaeoclimate inferences. We present a sub-annual rainfall record from northwest Yucatán, Mexico, derived from an annually laminated stalagmite spanning 871-1021 CE, with ±6-year age uncertainty. Interpretation of the stalagmite oxygen isotope record is supported by modern rain and dripwater monitoring. Precisely dated droughts enable detailed analyses of timing and dynamics of regional human-climate interactions. Despite uncertainties in archaeological chronologies, these results suggest political activity at major northern Maya sites, including Chichén Itzá and Uxmal, declined at different times relative to droughts, implying differential cultural responses to climate stress.

Original language	English
Journal	Science advances
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 6 Jun 2025

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James, D. H., Carolin, S. A., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Hoggarth, J. A., Lases-Hernandez, F., Endsley, E. A., Curtis, J. H., Gallup, C. D., Milbrath, S., Nicolson, J., Rolfe, J., Kwiecien, O., Ottley, C. J., Iveson, A. A., Baldini, J. U. L., Brenner, M., Henderson, G. M., & Hodell, D. A. (Accepted/In press). Classic Maya Response to Multi-Year Seasonal Droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico. Science advances.

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title = "Classic Maya Response to Multi-Year Seasonal Droughts in Northwest Yucat{\'a}n, Mexico",

abstract = "Protracted droughts may have contributed to socio-political upheaval and depopulation of cultural centres in the Maya Lowlands during the Terminal Classic Period (c.800 – 1000 CE). Regional proxy climate records suggest multiple prolonged drought episodes during the Terminal Classic. The relationship between drought and response of individual sites, however, remains unclear because of large chronological uncertainties and poor temporal resolution of existing local palaeoclimate inferences. We present a sub-annual rainfall record from northwest Yucat{\'a}n, Mexico, derived from an annually laminated stalagmite spanning 871-1021 CE, with ±6-year age uncertainty. Interpretation of the stalagmite oxygen isotope record is supported by modern rain and dripwater monitoring. Precisely dated droughts enable detailed analyses of timing and dynamics of regional human-climate interactions. Despite uncertainties in archaeological chronologies, these results suggest political activity at major northern Maya sites, including Chich{\'e}n Itz{\'a} and Uxmal, declined at different times relative to droughts, implying differential cultural responses to climate stress.",

author = "James, {Daniel H.} and Carolin, {Stacy A.} and Breitenbach, {Sebastian F. M.} and Hoggarth, {Julie A.} and Fernanda Lases-Hernandez and Endsley, {Erin A.} and Curtis, {Jason H.} and Gallup, {Christina D.} and Susan Milbrath and John Nicolson and James Rolfe and Ola Kwiecien and Ottley, {Christopher J.} and Iveson, {Alexander A.} and Baldini, {James U. L.} and Mark Brenner and Henderson, {Gideon M.} and Hodell, {David A.}",

year = "2025",

month = jun,

day = "6",

language = "English",

journal = "Science advances",

issn = "2375-2548",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

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T1 - Classic Maya Response to Multi-Year Seasonal Droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico

AU - James, Daniel H.

AU - Carolin, Stacy A.

AU - Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

AU - Hoggarth, Julie A.

AU - Lases-Hernandez, Fernanda

AU - Endsley, Erin A.

AU - Curtis, Jason H.

AU - Gallup, Christina D.

AU - Milbrath, Susan

AU - Nicolson, John

AU - Rolfe, James

AU - Kwiecien, Ola

AU - Ottley, Christopher J.

AU - Iveson, Alexander A.

AU - Baldini, James U. L.

AU - Brenner, Mark

AU - Henderson, Gideon M.

AU - Hodell, David A.

PY - 2025/6/6

Y1 - 2025/6/6

N2 - Protracted droughts may have contributed to socio-political upheaval and depopulation of cultural centres in the Maya Lowlands during the Terminal Classic Period (c.800 – 1000 CE). Regional proxy climate records suggest multiple prolonged drought episodes during the Terminal Classic. The relationship between drought and response of individual sites, however, remains unclear because of large chronological uncertainties and poor temporal resolution of existing local palaeoclimate inferences. We present a sub-annual rainfall record from northwest Yucatán, Mexico, derived from an annually laminated stalagmite spanning 871-1021 CE, with ±6-year age uncertainty. Interpretation of the stalagmite oxygen isotope record is supported by modern rain and dripwater monitoring. Precisely dated droughts enable detailed analyses of timing and dynamics of regional human-climate interactions. Despite uncertainties in archaeological chronologies, these results suggest political activity at major northern Maya sites, including Chichén Itzá and Uxmal, declined at different times relative to droughts, implying differential cultural responses to climate stress.

AB - Protracted droughts may have contributed to socio-political upheaval and depopulation of cultural centres in the Maya Lowlands during the Terminal Classic Period (c.800 – 1000 CE). Regional proxy climate records suggest multiple prolonged drought episodes during the Terminal Classic. The relationship between drought and response of individual sites, however, remains unclear because of large chronological uncertainties and poor temporal resolution of existing local palaeoclimate inferences. We present a sub-annual rainfall record from northwest Yucatán, Mexico, derived from an annually laminated stalagmite spanning 871-1021 CE, with ±6-year age uncertainty. Interpretation of the stalagmite oxygen isotope record is supported by modern rain and dripwater monitoring. Precisely dated droughts enable detailed analyses of timing and dynamics of regional human-climate interactions. Despite uncertainties in archaeological chronologies, these results suggest political activity at major northern Maya sites, including Chichén Itzá and Uxmal, declined at different times relative to droughts, implying differential cultural responses to climate stress.

M3 - Article

SN - 2375-2548

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

ER -