Climate-resilient building energy efficiency retrofit: Evaluating climate change impacts on residential buildings

Buildings have the potential to mitigate climate change effects by integrating energy-efficient solutions. Building resilient design strategies based on forthcoming weather predictions offers an effective means of adaptation. The study focuses on the impact of climate change on residential buildings in Istanbul and Izmir, two Turkish cities with distinctive climate characteristics. By creating future weather scenarios and conducting dynamic simulations, buildings’ and improvement measures’ performance under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios and short- and long-term periods are evaluated. The findings reveal varying degrees of climate change impact on the two regions, with decreased heating degree days (HDDs) and increased cooling degree days (CDDs). Notably, the RCP 8.5 scenario projects significant temperature increases, with a rise of 4.3 °C in Istanbul and 5 °C in Izmir, leading to profound consequences for buildings. The CDD can be doubled in July and reach 292 in Izmir and quadrupled, reaching 158 in Istanbul. Without retrofit, in a well-naturally ventilated building, primary heating energy consumption can be decreased by 36–41 %, while primary cooling energy consumption tripled in both cities. With the aid of improvements, a ∼ 5–6 °C decrease was observed in the highest temperature predictions in naturally ventilated spaces in summer in Istanbul, while a ∼ 4–5 °C decrease was observed in Izmir.