TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and validation of a prediction model for self-reported mobility decline in community-dwelling older adults
AU - Sanchez-Santos, Maria T.
AU - Williamson, Esther
AU - Nicolson, Philippa J.A.
AU - Bruce, Julie
AU - Collins, Gary S.
AU - Mallen, Christian D.
AU - Griffiths, Frances
AU - Garret, Angela
AU - Morris, Alana
AU - Slark, Mandy
AU - Lamb, Sarah E.
AU - OPAL study team
AU - Ward, Lesley
PY - 2022/12/1
Y1 - 2022/12/1
N2 - ObjectivesThe aim of this study is to develop and validate two models to predict 2-year risk of self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults.Study Design and SettingWe used data from a prospective cohort study of people aged 65 years and over in England. Mobility status was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L mobility question. The models were based on the outcome: Model 1, any mobility decline at 2 years; Model 2, new onset of persistent mobility problems over 2 years. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression was used to select predictors. Model performance was assessed using C-statistics, calibration plot, Brier scores, and decision curve analyses. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping.ResultsOver 18% of participants who could walk reported mobility decline at year 2 (Model 1), and 7.1% with no mobility problems at baseline, reported new onset of mobility problems after 2 years (Model 2). Thirteen and 6 out of 31 variables were selected as predictors in Models 1 and 2, respectively. Models 1 and 2 had a C-statistic of 0.740 and 0.765 (optimism < 0.013), and Brier score = 0.136 and 0.069, respectively.ConclusionTwo prediction models for mobility decline were developed and internally validated. They are based on self-reported variables and could serve as simple assessments in primary care after external validation.
AB - ObjectivesThe aim of this study is to develop and validate two models to predict 2-year risk of self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults.Study Design and SettingWe used data from a prospective cohort study of people aged 65 years and over in England. Mobility status was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L mobility question. The models were based on the outcome: Model 1, any mobility decline at 2 years; Model 2, new onset of persistent mobility problems over 2 years. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression was used to select predictors. Model performance was assessed using C-statistics, calibration plot, Brier scores, and decision curve analyses. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping.ResultsOver 18% of participants who could walk reported mobility decline at year 2 (Model 1), and 7.1% with no mobility problems at baseline, reported new onset of mobility problems after 2 years (Model 2). Thirteen and 6 out of 31 variables were selected as predictors in Models 1 and 2, respectively. Models 1 and 2 had a C-statistic of 0.740 and 0.765 (optimism < 0.013), and Brier score = 0.136 and 0.069, respectively.ConclusionTwo prediction models for mobility decline were developed and internally validated. They are based on self-reported variables and could serve as simple assessments in primary care after external validation.
KW - Aging
KW - Elderly
KW - General population
KW - Impaired mobility
KW - Model performance
KW - Prediction model
KW - Prognostic
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85140745583
U2 - 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.09.002
DO - 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.09.002
M3 - Review article
C2 - 36108957
AN - SCOPUS:85140745583
SN - 0895-4356
VL - 152
SP - 70
EP - 79
JO - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
JF - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
ER -