Development implications of land cover change in Mauritius: a multi-temporal geospatial analysis of sugarcane contraction and built-up area expansion

This study explores land cover change in Mauritius from 1994 to 2023, focusing on the decline of sugarcane cultivation and the expansion of built-up areas. Using multi-temporal satellite imagery (SPOT and Sentinel-2) and GIS technologies, the research reveals a sharp reduction in sugarcane coverage, from 40.39% to 20.20%, and a doubling of urban areas, from 4.71% to 9.10%. Regional analysis shows the Centre experienced the steepest sugarcane decline (67.06%), while the South and West saw the highest urban growth (111.11% and 110.09%). These changes are driven by population growth (24%), economic shifts away from sugar, and government policies promoting development, including smart city initiatives and infrastructure projects. The study’s classification results are statistically validated against official data, showing high accuracy (R² = 0.996 for sugarcane). The findings raise concerns about food security, agricultural sustainability, and rural livelihoods, emphasizing the need for integrated land-use planning. This research also discusses policy recommendations for sustainable land-use planning, drawing upon existing literature on urbanization policies and provides a robust methodology for monitoring rapid landscape transformation in small island developing states facing the pressures of economic development and population growth and contributes to understanding the environmental impacts of agricultural decline and rapid urbanization.