Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Douglas J. Kennett; Marilyn Masson; Carlos Peraza Lope; Stanley Serafin; Richard J. George; Tom C. Spencer; Julie A. Hoggarth; Brendan J. Culleton; Thomas K. Harper; Keith M. Prufer; Susan Milbrath; Bradley W. Russell; Eunice Uc González; Weston C. McCool; Valorie V. Aquino; Elizabeth H. Paris; Jason H. Curtis; Norbert Marwan; Mingua Zhang; Yemane Asmerom; Victor J. Polyak; Stacy A. Carolin; Daniel H. James; Andrew J. Mason; Gideon M. Henderson; Mark Brenner; James U. L. Baldini; Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach; David A. Hodell

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Douglas J. Kennett^*, Marilyn Masson, Carlos Peraza Lope, Stanley Serafin, Richard J. George, Tom C. Spencer, Julie A. Hoggarth, Brendan J. Culleton, Thomas K. Harper, Keith M. Prufer, Susan Milbrath, Bradley W. Russell, Eunice Uc González, Weston C. McCool, Valorie V. Aquino, Elizabeth H. Paris, Jason H. Curtis, Norbert Marwan, Mingua Zhang, Yemane AsmeromVictor J. Polyak, Stacy A. Carolin, Daniel H. James, Andrew J. Mason, Gideon M. Henderson, Mark Brenner, James U. L. Baldini, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, David A. Hodell^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

Original language	English
Article number	3911
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x
Publication status	Published - 19 Jul 2022

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

Keywords

Acclimatization
Archaeology
Climate Change
Droughts

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10.1038/s41467-022-31522-xLicence: CC BY

s41467-022-31522-xFinal published version, 2.07 MBLicence: CC BY

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Kennett, D. J., Masson, M., Lope, C. P., Serafin, S., George, R. J., Spencer, T. C., Hoggarth, J. A., Culleton, B. J., Harper, T. K., Prufer, K. M., Milbrath, S., Russell, B. W., González, E. U., McCool, W. C., Aquino, V. V., Paris, E. H., Curtis, J. H., Marwan, N., Zhang, M., ... Hodell, D. A. (2022). Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 3911. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

@article{6c8784b4861d4df59eefa46c83fbc8a2,

title = "Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya",

abstract = "The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucat{\'a}n Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.",

keywords = "Acclimatization, Archaeology, Climate Change, Droughts",

author = "Kennett, \{Douglas J.\} and Marilyn Masson and Lope, \{Carlos Peraza\} and Stanley Serafin and George, \{Richard J.\} and Spencer, \{Tom C.\} and Hoggarth, \{Julie A.\} and Culleton, \{Brendan J.\} and Harper, \{Thomas K.\} and Prufer, \{Keith M.\} and Susan Milbrath and Russell, \{Bradley W.\} and Gonz{\'a}lez, \{Eunice Uc\} and McCool, \{Weston C.\} and Aquino, \{Valorie V.\} and Paris, \{Elizabeth H.\} and Curtis, \{Jason H.\} and Norbert Marwan and Mingua Zhang and Yemane Asmerom and Polyak, \{Victor J.\} and Carolin, \{Stacy A.\} and James, \{Daniel H.\} and Mason, \{Andrew J.\} and Henderson, \{Gideon M.\} and Mark Brenner and Baldini, \{James U. L.\} and Breitenbach, \{Sebastian F. M.\} and Hodell, \{David A.\}",

note = "Funding information: financially supported by grants from Central Queensland University (S.S.; New Staff Research Grant), Middle American Research Institute of Tulane University (S.S.), and Sigma Xi (S.S.). Interdisciplinary research supported by the NSF (BCS-0940744, D.J.K) and general lab support for radiocarbon work supported by the NSF Archaeometry program (BCS-1460369, D.J.K. \& B.J.K.), The Pennsylvania State University (PSU; D.J.K.), and the University of California, Santa Barbara D.J.K). ",

year = "2022",

month = jul,

day = "19",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x",

language = "English",

volume = "13",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

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number = "1",

}

Kennett, DJ, Masson, M, Lope, CP, Serafin, S, George, RJ, Spencer, TC, Hoggarth, JA, Culleton, BJ, Harper, TK, Prufer, KM, Milbrath, S, Russell, BW, González, EU, McCool, WC, Aquino, VV, Paris, EH, Curtis, JH, Marwan, N, Zhang, M, Asmerom, Y, Polyak, VJ, Carolin, SA, James, DH, Mason, AJ, Henderson, GM, Brenner, M, Baldini, JUL, Breitenbach, SFM & Hodell, DA 2022, 'Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya', Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 3911. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

TY - JOUR

T1 - Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

AU - Kennett, Douglas J.

AU - Masson, Marilyn

AU - Lope, Carlos Peraza

AU - Serafin, Stanley

AU - George, Richard J.

AU - Spencer, Tom C.

AU - Hoggarth, Julie A.

AU - Culleton, Brendan J.

AU - Harper, Thomas K.

AU - Prufer, Keith M.

AU - Milbrath, Susan

AU - Russell, Bradley W.

AU - González, Eunice Uc

AU - McCool, Weston C.

AU - Aquino, Valorie V.

AU - Paris, Elizabeth H.

AU - Curtis, Jason H.

AU - Marwan, Norbert

AU - Zhang, Mingua

AU - Asmerom, Yemane

AU - Polyak, Victor J.

AU - Carolin, Stacy A.

AU - James, Daniel H.

AU - Mason, Andrew J.

AU - Henderson, Gideon M.

AU - Brenner, Mark

AU - Baldini, James U. L.

AU - Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

AU - Hodell, David A.

N1 - Funding information: financially supported by grants from Central Queensland University (S.S.; New Staff Research Grant), Middle American Research Institute of Tulane University (S.S.), and Sigma Xi (S.S.). Interdisciplinary research supported by the NSF (BCS-0940744, D.J.K) and general lab support for radiocarbon work supported by the NSF Archaeometry program (BCS-1460369, D.J.K. & B.J.K.), The Pennsylvania State University (PSU; D.J.K.), and the University of California, Santa Barbara D.J.K).

PY - 2022/7/19

Y1 - 2022/7/19

N2 - The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

AB - The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

KW - Acclimatization

KW - Archaeology

KW - Climate Change

KW - Droughts

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85134395888

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

M3 - Article

C2 - 35853849

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 13

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 3911

ER -

Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Abstract

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Keywords

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