TY - JOUR
T1 - Elevated drought risk due to multi-decadal climate variability
AU - Kiem, Anthony S.
AU - Franks, Stewart W.
PY - 2003/8/11
Y1 - 2003/8/11
N2 - This study investigates multi-decadal variability of drought risk by analysing the performance of a water storage reservoir in New South Wales, Australia, during different climate epochs defined using the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The performance of the reservoir is also analysed under three adaptive management techniques and these are compared with the current "reactive" management practices. The results indicate that IPO modulation of both the magnitude and frequency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events has the effect of reducing and elevating drought risk on multi-decadal timescales. The results also confirm that adaptive reservoir management techniques, based on ENSO forecasts, can improve drought security and become significantly more important during dry climate epochs. These results have marked implications for improving drought security for water storage reservoirs. A possible explanation for the extreme drought in Australia during 2002/2003 is also suggested.
AB - This study investigates multi-decadal variability of drought risk by analysing the performance of a water storage reservoir in New South Wales, Australia, during different climate epochs defined using the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The performance of the reservoir is also analysed under three adaptive management techniques and these are compared with the current "reactive" management practices. The results indicate that IPO modulation of both the magnitude and frequency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events has the effect of reducing and elevating drought risk on multi-decadal timescales. The results also confirm that adaptive reservoir management techniques, based on ENSO forecasts, can improve drought security and become significantly more important during dry climate epochs. These results have marked implications for improving drought security for water storage reservoirs. A possible explanation for the extreme drought in Australia during 2002/2003 is also suggested.
KW - Australia
KW - Climate variability
KW - Drought
KW - EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
KW - Hydrological impacts of ENSO
KW - Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)
KW - La Niña
KW - Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)
KW - Water resource management
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0042268509&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0042268509
SP - 165
EP - 172
JO - IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
JF - IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
SN - 0144-7815
IS - 281
ER -