TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
AU - Davies, Nicholas G.
AU - Abbott, Sam
AU - Barnard, Rosanna C.
AU - Jarvis, Christopher I.
AU - Kucharski, Adam J.
AU - Munday, James D.
AU - Pearson, Carl A. B.
AU - Russell, Timothy W.
AU - Tully, Damien C.
AU - Washburne, Alex D.
AU - Wenseleers, Tom
AU - Gimma, Amy
AU - Waites, William
AU - Wong, Kerry L. M.
AU - van Zandvoort, Kevin
AU - Silverman, Justin D.
AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
AU - The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
AU - Diaz-Ordaz, Karla
AU - Keogh, Ruth
AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.
AU - Funk, Sebastian
AU - Jit, Mark
AU - Atkins, Katherine E.
AU - Edmunds, W. John
AU - Bashton, Matthew
AU - Smith, Darren
AU - Young, Greg
AU - Nelson, Andrew
N1 - Matthew Bashton, Darren Smith, Greg Young and Andrew Nelson are the members of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium. See supplementary materials for list of consortium members and affiliations.
PY - 2021/4/9
Y1 - 2021/4/9
N2 - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
AB - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
UR - https://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2021/03/02/science.abg3055.DC1
U2 - 10.1126/science.abg3055
DO - 10.1126/science.abg3055
M3 - Article
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 372
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6538
M1 - eabg3055
ER -
