Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market

Dilek Önkal*, Gülnur Muradoǧlu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recent literature on the accuracy of forecasting in financial markets reveals contradictory results. These discrepancies can be attributed to the differences in forecasting environments as well as the differences in forecaster expertise that are employed by the researchers. Since the use of point and interval predictions by themselves do not aid in explaining the various aspects of forecaster performance, probabilistic forecasting provides a better alternative that can be used to gain insight into forecasting accuracy in such settings. This study aims to test the effects of forecaster expertise and forecasting environment on forecasting accuracy. Accordingly, various aspects of forecasting performance are studied in a developing stock-market framework.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)350-358
Number of pages9
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume74
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Apr 1994

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