Forecasts and Order Decisions: Reactions to Demand Variability

Mustafa Sinan Gonul, Dilek Onkal, Ayse Kocabiyikoglu, Celile Itir Göğüş

Research output: Contribution to conferenceOtherpeer-review

Abstract

In a typical supply-chain management setting, making order decisions inherently entails forecasting the uncertain demand for the relevant products. Through this translation of demand forecasting into final order decisions, one of the persistent findings in recent years is the pull-to-centre effect. This effect can be summarized as the tendency of the decision makers to set their order decisions between the mean demand and the normative order quantity. In the current study, we attempt to explore how decision makers will react to demand uncertainty, particularly to changes in variability of the demand and investigate the corresponding pull-to-centre effect. We also try to identify a potential cognitive bias, overprecision, that may prevail in this forecasting and decision process. Findings are discussed and directions for future research are suggested.
Original languageEnglish
Pages1-22
Number of pages22
Publication statusUnpublished - 12 Jul 2022
Event42nd International Symposium on Forecasting - Oxford, United Kingdom
Duration: 10 Jul 202213 Jul 2022
https://isf.forecasters.org/

Conference

Conference42nd International Symposium on Forecasting
Abbreviated titleISF 2022
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityOxford
Period10/07/2213/07/22
Internet address

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