Household transmission of COVID-19 cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 delta variant (B.1.617.2): national case-control study

The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Hester Allen, Amoolya Vusirikala, Joe Flannagan, Katherine A. Twohig, Asad Zaidi, Dimple Chudasama, Theresa Lamagni, Natalie Groves, Charlie Turner, Christopher Rawlinson, Jamie Lopez-Bernal, Ross Harris, Andre Charlett, Gavin Dabrera, Meaghan Kall*, Matthew Bashton, Andrew Nelson, Darren Smith, Gregory R. YoungClare McCann

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (B.1.617.2), first detected in India, has rapidly become the dominant variant in England. Early reports suggest this variant has an increased growth rate suggesting increased transmissibility. This study indirectly assessed differences in transmissibility between the emergent Delta variant compared to the previously dominant Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). Methods: A matched case-control study was conducted to estimate the odds of household transmission (≥ 2 cases within 14 days) for Delta variant index cases compared with Alpha cases. Cases were derived from national surveillance data (March to June 2021). One-to-two matching was undertaken on geographical location of residence, time period of testing and property type, and a multivariable conditional logistic regression model was used for analysis. Findings: In total 5,976 genomically sequenced index cases in household clusters were matched to 11,952 sporadic index cases (single case within a household). 43.3% (n=2,586) of cases in household clusters were confirmed Delta variant compared to 40.4% (n= 4,824) of sporadic cases. The odds ratio of household transmission was 1.70 among Delta variant cases (95% CI 1.48-1.95, p <0.001) compared to Alpha cases after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), number of household contacts and vaccination status of index case. Interpretation: We found evidence of increased household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, potentially explaining its success at displacing Alpha variant as the dominant strain in England. With the Delta variant now having been detected in many countries worldwide, the understanding of the transmissibility of this variant is important for informing infection prevention and control policies internationally.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100252
Pages (from-to)1-9
Number of pages9
JournalThe Lancet Regional Health - Europe
Volume12
Early online date28 Oct 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2022

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