Impact of decomposition on time series bagging forecasting performance

Xinyang Liu, Anyu Liu, Jason Li Chen, Gang Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Time series bagging has been deemed an effective way to improve unstable modelling procedures and subsequent forecasting accuracy. However, the literature has paid little attention to decomposition in time series bagging. This study investigates the impacts of various decomposition methods on bagging forecasting performance. Eight popular decomposition approaches are incorporated into the time series bagging procedure to improve unstable modelling procedures, and the resulting bagging methods' forecasting performance is evaluated. Using the world's top 20 inbound destinations as an empirical case, this study generates one-to eight-step-ahead tourism forecasts and compares them against benchmarks, including non-bagged and seasonal naïve models. For short-term forecasts, bagging constructed via seasonal extraction in autoregressive integrated moving average time series decomposition outperforms other methods. An autocorrelation test shows that efficient decomposition reduces variance in bagging forecasts.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104725
JournalTourism Management
Volume97
Early online date2 Feb 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2023
Externally publishedYes

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