Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years

Michael Lawrence*, Paul Goodwin, Marcus O'Connor, Dilek Önkal

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

256 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement. While previously judgement was thought to be the enemy of accuracy, today judgement is recognised as an indispensable component of forecasting and much research attention has been directed at understanding and improving its use. Human judgement can be demonstrated to provide a significant benefit to forecasting accuracy but it can also be subject to many biases. Much of the research has been directed at understanding and managing these strengths and weaknesses. An indication of the explosion of research interest in this area can be gauged by the fact that over 200 studies are referenced in this review.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)493-518
Number of pages26
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume22
Issue number3
Early online date21 Jun 2006
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006
Externally publishedYes

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