TY - JOUR
T1 - Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project
AU - Haywood, Alan
AU - Hill, Daniel
AU - Dolan, Aisling
AU - Otto-Bliesner, Bette
AU - Bragg, Frances
AU - Chan, Wing-Le
AU - Chandler, Mark
AU - Contoux, Camille
AU - Dowsett, Harry
AU - Jost, Anne
AU - Kamae, Youichi
AU - Lohmann, Gerrit
AU - Lunt, Daniel
AU - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
AU - Pickering, Steven
AU - Ramstein, Gilles
AU - Rosenbloom, Nan
AU - Salzmann, Ulrich
AU - Sohl, Linda
AU - Stepanek, Christian
AU - Ueda, Hiroaki
AU - Yan, Qing
AU - Zhang, Zhongshi
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.
AB - Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.
UR - http://www.clim-past.net/9/191/2013/cp-9-191-2013.html
U2 - 10.5194/cp-9-191-2013
DO - 10.5194/cp-9-191-2013
M3 - Article
SN - 1814-9324
VL - 9
SP - 191
EP - 209
JO - Climate of the Past
JF - Climate of the Past
IS - 1
ER -