Marshalling the traffic: a preliminary exploration of the illegal firearms trade in Ukraine during martial law

Justin Kotzé; Maryana Kachynska; Vita Kononets; Georgios A. Antonopoulos; Dmytro Sanakoiev; Oleksandr Morhunov

doi:10.1007/s12117-025-09563-7

Marshalling the traffic: a preliminary exploration of the illegal firearms trade in Ukraine during martial law

Justin Kotzé^*, Maryana Kachynska, Vita Kononets, Georgios A. Antonopoulos, Dmytro Sanakoiev, Oleksandr Morhunov

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent war have increased both the circulation and use of illegal firearms. The imposition of martial law, intended to help secure territorial defences and the safety of the people, has also, unintentionally, influenced the illegal firearms trade in Ukraine. The impact of martial law in this context is not fully known, and there is a paucity of empirical research directed towards illuminating the issue. Accordingly, by drawing upon open sources and original empirical efforts, this article makes a novel contribution towards enhancing our understanding of this impact by shedding light on some of the factors influencing the contemporary demand and supply of firearms; the types of firearms most frequently handled illegally; and the general composition of the Ukrainian market under conditions of martial law.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-17
Number of pages	17
Journal	Trends in Organized Crime
Early online date	12 Apr 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s12117-025-09563-7
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 12 Apr 2025

Keywords

Firearms
Illicit market
Martial law
Trafficking
Ukraine

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10.1007/s12117-025-09563-7Licence: CC BY

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abstract = "The russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent war have increased both the circulation and use of illegal firearms. The imposition of martial law, intended to help secure territorial defences and the safety of the people, has also, unintentionally, influenced the illegal firearms trade in Ukraine. The impact of martial law in this context is not fully known, and there is a paucity of empirical research directed towards illuminating the issue. Accordingly, by drawing upon open sources and original empirical efforts, this article makes a novel contribution towards enhancing our understanding of this impact by shedding light on some of the factors influencing the contemporary demand and supply of firearms; the types of firearms most frequently handled illegally; and the general composition of the Ukrainian market under conditions of martial law.",

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AB - The russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent war have increased both the circulation and use of illegal firearms. The imposition of martial law, intended to help secure territorial defences and the safety of the people, has also, unintentionally, influenced the illegal firearms trade in Ukraine. The impact of martial law in this context is not fully known, and there is a paucity of empirical research directed towards illuminating the issue. Accordingly, by drawing upon open sources and original empirical efforts, this article makes a novel contribution towards enhancing our understanding of this impact by shedding light on some of the factors influencing the contemporary demand and supply of firearms; the types of firearms most frequently handled illegally; and the general composition of the Ukrainian market under conditions of martial law.

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Marshalling the traffic: a preliminary exploration of the illegal firearms trade in Ukraine during martial law

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