Measuring the Quality of Scenarios Generated using the Simple Scenarios Technique

This chapter examines scenario quality in a highly uncertain geopolitical context where futures and foresight work carry a special momentum and impact. Using migration as a backdrop, we present a multidimensional investigation of the quality of scenarios generated via the Simple Scenarios Technique (SST). Given its amenability to rapid training and flexibility of use by individuals or groups, the Simple Scenarios Technique is a valuable tool to elicit scenarios and is often employed in defence and security settings. Focusing on completeness, plausibility, relevance, coherence, and transparency as the key evaluation criteria, this work portrays the differences in quality among types of scenarios generated (i.e., best-case, worst-case, and baseline). Relationships with generation order, numbers of drivers used in scenario generation, and the indicators flagged for monitoring are explored. Findings highlight the importance of evaluating scenario quality in building an evidence-based approach to supporting futures thinking and foresight practice.