Modelling transport emission of an out of town centre to achieve emission reduction targets

Transportation negatively affects the environment due to a high carbon footprint associated with travel. In this paper, we estimate the commuter travel emissions of an out-of-town centre and evaluate the modelled emission against the targets set out by the UK government for 2030 (Climate Change Act), and 2050 (Committee on Climate Change, Kyoto protocol). For the study, primary data is provided by a leading retail centre in the UK in the form of home postcode, and mode selected by its staff for the commute. Each trip’s details are extracted using a macro code linking the journey details with google map. An emission model is constructed through the Department for Transport’s, Transport Appraisal Guidelines. Modelling for: a) Present mode share, b) Car only, and c) Bus only, with horizon modelling from 2010-2030. There are 3,444 staff working in the centre, 1743 (51%) use a car and 1701 (49%) bus for the everyday commute. Presently the average emission per person is 3 kg CO2e, modelled to decrease to 2.3 kg CO2e per journey by 2050. It is concluded from the study that a) average emissions for the same trip are expected to decrease, b) the emissions for bus journey are much lower than that of car, c) the targets set out for 2030, and 2050 will not be met if the present travel patterns continue. The modelling has considered advancements in technology, cleaner fuels, and electric vehicles' uptake. The deviation from 2030 and 2050 target is modelled as 29% and 56% respectively. The setout emissions targets are achievable only if a significant change in travel behaviour occurs supplemented by the uptake of sustainable transport modes such as cycling. This study endorses the adverse effects of travel on the environment and makes a case for stronger actions to reduce the travel carbon footprint.