Predicting Energy Savings of the UK Housing Stock under a Step-by-Step Energy Retrofit Scenario towards Net-Zero

The UK has one of the least energy-efficient housing stocks in Europe. By 2030, the emissions from UK homes need to fall by at least 24% from 1990 levels to meet the UK’s ambitious goal, which is reaching net-zero emissions. The originality of this paper is to apply the building typology approach to predict energy savings of the UK housing stock under a step-by-step energy retrofit scenario, targeting the Passive House Standard for refurbishments of existing buildings, namely the EnerPHit “Quality-Approved Energy Retrofit with Passive House Components.” The typologies consist of twenty reference buildings, representative of five construction ages and four building sizes. The energy balance of the UK residential buildings was created and validated against statistical data. A building stock retrofit plan specifying the order in which to apply energy efficiency measures was elaborated, and energy savings were calculated. The predicted total energy demand for the UK residential building stock for the year 2022 is 37.7 MTOE, and the carbon emissions estimation is 65.33 MtCO2e. The energy-saving potential is 87%, and carbon reductions are about 76%, considering all the steps of renovation applied. It has been demonstrated that the step that provides the biggest savings across the housing stock is the one that involves replacing windows, draught-proofing, and installing mechanical ventilation with heat recovery.