Probability judgment accuracy for general knowledge. Cross‐national differences and assessment methods

Kathleen M. Whitcomb*, Dilek Önkal, Shawn P. Curley, P. George Benson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)


In this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed — numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two‐alternative, general‐knowledge items. The observed pattern of differences in the components of probability judgment accuracy paralleled those of studies that have compared Western and Asian subjects. In particular, Turkish subjects exhibited better discrimination but worse calibration than their US counterparts. This result persisted across all three response modes. These findings lend support to previous assertions that observed cross‐national differences arise from socioeconomic rather than Asian versus Western cultural differences. However, the consistency of the observed differences across response modes refutes a previous assertion that observed cultural differences are merely the result of response bias.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)51-67
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Behavioral Decision Making
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 1995


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