Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

Liangcheng Tan; Chuan-Chou Shen; Ludvig Löwemark; Sakonvan Chawchai; R. Lawrence Edwards; Yanjun Cai; Sebastian Breitenbach; Hai Cheng; Yu-Chen Chou; Helmut Duerrast; Judson W. Partin; Wenju Cai; Akkaneewut Chabangborn; Yongli Gao; Ola Kwiecien; Chung-Che Wu; Zhengguo Shi; Huang-Hsiung Hsu; Barbara Wohlfarth

doi:10.1073/pnas.1903167116

Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

Liangcheng Tan, Chuan-Chou Shen, Ludvig Löwemark, Sakonvan Chawchai, R. Lawrence Edwards, Yanjun Cai, Sebastian Breitenbach, Hai Cheng, Yu-Chen Chou, Helmut Duerrast, Judson W. Partin, Wenju Cai, Akkaneewut Chabangborn, Yongli Gao, Ola Kwiecien, Chung-Che Wu, Zhengguo Shi, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Barbara Wohlfarth

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

86 Citations (Scopus)

129 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based
2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an
overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the earlyMWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains
indistinguishable from natural variability.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	17201-17206
Number of pages	6
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	116
Issue number	35
Early online date	12 Aug 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903167116
Publication status	Published - 27 Aug 2019
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

central Indo-Pacific
rainfall
ENSO
ITCZ
stalagmite

Access to Document

10.1073/pnas.1903167116Licence: CC BY

17201.fullFinal published version, 1.29 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Tan, L., Shen, C.-C., Löwemark, L., Chawchai, S., Edwards, R. L., Cai, Y., Breitenbach, S., Cheng, H., Chou, Y.-C., Duerrast, H., Partin, J. W., Cai, W., Chabangborn, A., Gao, Y., Kwiecien, O., Wu, C.-C., Shi, Z., Hsu, H.-H., & Wohlfarth, B. (2019). Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(35), 17201-17206. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903167116

@article{2052b1d354754bbdae5db7ebff7b62e5,

title = "Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y",

abstract = "Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Ni{\~n}o-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports anoverall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the earlyMWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remainsindistinguishable from natural variability.",

keywords = "central Indo-Pacific, rainfall, ENSO, ITCZ, stalagmite",

author = "Liangcheng Tan and Chuan-Chou Shen and Ludvig L{\"o}wemark and Sakonvan Chawchai and Edwards, {R. Lawrence} and Yanjun Cai and Sebastian Breitenbach and Hai Cheng and Yu-Chen Chou and Helmut Duerrast and Partin, {Judson W.} and Wenju Cai and Akkaneewut Chabangborn and Yongli Gao and Ola Kwiecien and Chung-Che Wu and Zhengguo Shi and Huang-Hsiung Hsu and Barbara Wohlfarth",

year = "2019",

month = aug,

day = "27",

doi = "10.1073/pnas.1903167116",

language = "English",

volume = "116",

pages = "17201--17206",

journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",

issn = "0027-8424",

publisher = "National Academy of Sciences",

number = "35",

}

Tan, L, Shen, C-C, Löwemark, L, Chawchai, S, Edwards, RL, Cai, Y, Breitenbach, S, Cheng, H, Chou, Y-C, Duerrast, H, Partin, JW, Cai, W, Chabangborn, A, Gao, Y, Kwiecien, O, Wu, C-C, Shi, Z, Hsu, H-H & Wohlfarth, B 2019, 'Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 116, no. 35, pp. 17201-17206. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903167116

TY - JOUR

T1 - Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

AU - Tan, Liangcheng

AU - Shen, Chuan-Chou

AU - Löwemark, Ludvig

AU - Chawchai, Sakonvan

AU - Edwards, R. Lawrence

AU - Cai, Yanjun

AU - Breitenbach, Sebastian

AU - Cheng, Hai

AU - Chou, Yu-Chen

AU - Duerrast, Helmut

AU - Partin, Judson W.

AU - Cai, Wenju

AU - Chabangborn, Akkaneewut

AU - Gao, Yongli

AU - Kwiecien, Ola

AU - Wu, Chung-Che

AU - Shi, Zhengguo

AU - Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

AU - Wohlfarth, Barbara

PY - 2019/8/27

Y1 - 2019/8/27

N2 - Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports anoverall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the earlyMWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remainsindistinguishable from natural variability.

AB - Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports anoverall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the earlyMWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remainsindistinguishable from natural variability.

KW - central Indo-Pacific

KW - rainfall

KW - ENSO

KW - ITCZ

KW - stalagmite

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1903167116

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1903167116

M3 - Article

SN - 0027-8424

VL - 116

SP - 17201

EP - 17206

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 35

ER -

Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this