Sea-level rise and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole explain mangrove dieback in the Maldives

Lucy Carruthers; Vasile Ersek; Damien	 Maher; Christian Sanders; Douglas Tait; Juliano Soares; Matthew Floyd; Aminath Shaha Hasim; Stephanie Helber; Mark Garnett; Holly East; Jamie A. Johnson; Gheorghe Ponta; James Z. Sippo

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-73776-z

Sea-level rise and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole explain mangrove dieback in the Maldives

Lucy Carruthers^*, Vasile Ersek, Damien Maher, Christian Sanders, Douglas Tait, Juliano Soares, Matthew Floyd, Aminath Shaha Hasim, Stephanie Helber, Mark Garnett, Holly East, Jamie A. Johnson, Gheorghe Ponta, James Z. Sippo

^*Corresponding author for this work

Geography and Environmental Sciences Department

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Abstract

Mangrove forests enhance Small Island Developing States’ resilience to climate change, yet in 2020, a mangrove dieback impacted ~ 25% of mangrove-containing islands in the Maldives. Using remote sensing, dendrology and sediment geochemistry, we document a significant decrease in mangrove health post-2020 (NDVI: 0.75 ± 0.09) compared to pre-2020 (0.85 ± 0.04; P < 0.0001). Dead trees showed reduced stomatal conductance (δ13C: − 26.21 ± 0.11 ‰) relative to living ones (− 27.66 ± 0.14 ‰), indicating salinity stress. Critically, sea-level rise (30.50 ± 23.30 mm/year) outpaced mangrove sediment accretion (6.40 ± 0.69 mm/year) five-fold between 2017 and 2020. We attribute this dieback to salinity stress driven by record-high sea levels in 2020, linked to an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. These findings reveal the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to rapid sea-level rise and highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies in Small Island Developing States.

Original language	English
Article number	27012
Number of pages	10
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	14
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-73776-z
Publication status	Published - 12 Nov 2024

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title = "Sea-level rise and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole explain mangrove dieback in the Maldives",

abstract = "Mangrove forests enhance Small Island Developing States{\textquoteright} resilience to climate change, yet in 2020, a mangrove dieback impacted ~ 25% of mangrove-containing islands in the Maldives. Using remote sensing, dendrology and sediment geochemistry, we document a significant decrease in mangrove health post-2020 (NDVI: 0.75 ± 0.09) compared to pre-2020 (0.85 ± 0.04; P < 0.0001). Dead trees showed reduced stomatal conductance (δ13C: − 26.21 ± 0.11 ‰) relative to living ones (− 27.66 ± 0.14 ‰), indicating salinity stress. Critically, sea-level rise (30.50 ± 23.30 mm/year) outpaced mangrove sediment accretion (6.40 ± 0.69 mm/year) five-fold between 2017 and 2020. We attribute this dieback to salinity stress driven by record-high sea levels in 2020, linked to an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. These findings reveal the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to rapid sea-level rise and highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies in Small Island Developing States.",

author = "Lucy Carruthers and Vasile Ersek and Damien Maher and Christian Sanders and Douglas Tait and Juliano Soares and Matthew Floyd and Hasim, {Aminath Shaha} and Stephanie Helber and Mark Garnett and Holly East and Johnson, {Jamie A.} and Gheorghe Ponta and Sippo, {James Z.}",

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doi = "10.1038/s41598-024-73776-z",

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T1 - Sea-level rise and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole explain mangrove dieback in the Maldives

AU - Carruthers, Lucy

AU - Ersek, Vasile

AU - Maher, Damien

AU - Sanders, Christian

AU - Tait, Douglas

AU - Soares, Juliano

AU - Floyd, Matthew

AU - Hasim, Aminath Shaha

AU - Helber, Stephanie

AU - Garnett, Mark

AU - East, Holly

AU - Johnson, Jamie A.

AU - Ponta, Gheorghe

AU - Sippo, James Z.

PY - 2024/11/12

Y1 - 2024/11/12

N2 - Mangrove forests enhance Small Island Developing States’ resilience to climate change, yet in 2020, a mangrove dieback impacted ~ 25% of mangrove-containing islands in the Maldives. Using remote sensing, dendrology and sediment geochemistry, we document a significant decrease in mangrove health post-2020 (NDVI: 0.75 ± 0.09) compared to pre-2020 (0.85 ± 0.04; P < 0.0001). Dead trees showed reduced stomatal conductance (δ13C: − 26.21 ± 0.11 ‰) relative to living ones (− 27.66 ± 0.14 ‰), indicating salinity stress. Critically, sea-level rise (30.50 ± 23.30 mm/year) outpaced mangrove sediment accretion (6.40 ± 0.69 mm/year) five-fold between 2017 and 2020. We attribute this dieback to salinity stress driven by record-high sea levels in 2020, linked to an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. These findings reveal the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to rapid sea-level rise and highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies in Small Island Developing States.

AB - Mangrove forests enhance Small Island Developing States’ resilience to climate change, yet in 2020, a mangrove dieback impacted ~ 25% of mangrove-containing islands in the Maldives. Using remote sensing, dendrology and sediment geochemistry, we document a significant decrease in mangrove health post-2020 (NDVI: 0.75 ± 0.09) compared to pre-2020 (0.85 ± 0.04; P < 0.0001). Dead trees showed reduced stomatal conductance (δ13C: − 26.21 ± 0.11 ‰) relative to living ones (− 27.66 ± 0.14 ‰), indicating salinity stress. Critically, sea-level rise (30.50 ± 23.30 mm/year) outpaced mangrove sediment accretion (6.40 ± 0.69 mm/year) five-fold between 2017 and 2020. We attribute this dieback to salinity stress driven by record-high sea levels in 2020, linked to an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. These findings reveal the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to rapid sea-level rise and highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies in Small Island Developing States.

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Sea-level rise and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole explain mangrove dieback in the Maldives

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