Socio-Technical, Electrification, and Hydrogen-Driven Pathways for Residential Heating Decarbonisation in the North of Tyne

Decarbonising domestic heating remains a major challenge, particularly in gas-dependent and fuel-poor regions. This paper investigates hydrogen-based and alternative decarbonisation pathways for residential heating in the North of Tyne (NoT) region, UK. A multi-system perspective (MSP) framework - combining qualitative scenario analysis with quantitative energy system modelling - evaluates the effects of socio-technical interventions (STIs), technology adoption (heat pumps and hydrogen boilers), and hydrogen blending on energy demand, CO₂ emissions, and system costs to 2050. Monte Carlo simulations capture behavioural uncertainties, while a game-theoretic investment model supports long-term planning. Results show that while STIs significantly reduce demand, they cannot alone achieve net zero. Hydrogen blending offers limited short-term benefits, whereas heat pumps deliver the lowest operational costs and emissions, representing the most efficient pathway under full electrification. Hydrogen boilers, though cost-intensive and less efficient operationally, show high long-term net present value (NPV £318-624 million), suggesting potential economic payoff over time. By 2050, with full CCS deployment and high renewable penetration, operational emissions are nearly eliminated across all scenarios. The findings highlight the importance of integrated planning, investment coordination, and social engagement to deliver a resilient and cost-effective low-carbon heating transition.