Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning

Foresight is fundamental to strategy scholarship and can affect organizational outcomes such as innovation. However, few attempts have been made to link foresight with business model innovation (BMI). Therefore, it remains empirically unclear whether and through which mechanisms strategic foresight influences BMI development. To address these shortcomings, this study analyzes the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI and the mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. The data were derived from surveying a sample of senior managers at 146 Finnish organizations (both large firms and SMEs) and the analysis was conducted by applying structural equation modeling. The findings provide evidence of a direct association between strategic foresight and BMI and suggest a partial mediating effect of learning and, more importantly, sequential mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. This study offers valuable insights into the relationships among BMI, strategic foresight, sensemaking, and learning. It enriches theory and practice by providing empirical support for the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI, uncovering the multifaceted roles of the mechanisms that influence BMI, and proposing a model that could help managers handle barriers to BMI robustly and systematically.