The Future Cyber Threat from Drones Against the United Kingdom’s Key Assets

During the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, there has been an increasing reliance on the use of drones in all aspects of the conflict. As the war continues, the prospect of NATO entering into conflict with Russia has never been higher. At the same time, the cyber threat landscape continues to change, and the conflict has brought together these two elements; drones and cyber-attacks. This report investigates the probability and impact of a drone-initiated cyber-attack against the United Kingdom’s (UK) Ministry of Defence (MoD) and national assets and highlights which assets are the most likely to be targeted. Clear motivating factors driving this paper are the increasing threat of international terrorism to the United Kingdom and the increasing threat from state-level actors which has been exacerbated by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict that continues to present a geopolitical risk that threatens the wider NATO-Russia relationship. Several analysis methods were used to understand the impact and likelihood of this type of attack against UK assets, along with a small lab to highlight the vulnerabilities of Wi-Fi networks. The results of the analysis show different variables, but the key indication is that it is likely that there will be increased hostilities and proxy conflicts between the two nations (Russia and Ukraine), resulting in an increased level of cyber-attacks and an increased likelihood of a drone-initiated cyber-attack against key UK MoD and national assets.