The Influence of Pre-Arrival Confidence and Perceived Importance on Retention and Achievement Outcomes Among UK First-Year Undergraduate Sports Students

This study examined whether pre-arrival confidence and perceived importance across four domains (learning, community, employability, and health and well-being) predict academic achievement and retention among first-year undergraduate sports students. A quantitative study at a United Kingdom post-92 university involved 368 first-year sports students (56% male, 44% female) across six programmes. Pre-arrival surveys measuring confidence and importance perceptions were distributed, with academic performance and retention data collected after one year. Regression analysis revealed that female students demonstrated significantly higher academic performance than males while reporting higher pre-arrival confidence. Three factors significantly predicted academic achievement, explaining 10% of variance. Lower employability confidence and higher health and well-being confidence and importance were associated with better outcomes. Community importance was the only significant predictor of withdrawal risk, with higher importance associated with increased departure likelihood. Pre-arrival surveys can identify at-risk students, though relationships are complex.