TY - JOUR
T1 - Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century
AU - Naughten, Kaitlin A.
AU - Holland, Paul R.
AU - De Rydt, Jan
N1 - Funding information: We thank the CESM Climate Variability and Change Working Group for producing the CESM1 ensembles for community use. G. Strand assisted with data access to CESM1 output. M. Mineter ported the ocean model to the ARCHER2 facility and optimized its computational performance. R. Reese provided advice on the ice sheet buttressing simulations and their analysis. C. Jones provided advice on scenario divergence calculations. Q. Dalaiden provided information about the treatment of Antarctic snowfall in CESM1. Previous developers of the ocean model configuration include D. Bett, S. Kimura, K. Assmann and M. Losch; the ice sheet model is developed and maintained by G. H. Gudmundsson. The authors benefited from helpful discussions with J. Janzing, K. Turner, P. Dutrieux and A. Silvano during the development of this study. This research is part of the UKRI-JSPS project ‘Quantifying Human Influence on Ocean Melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet’ (NE/S011994/1, K.A.N., P.R.H.). It was also supported by the NERC LTSM project TerraFIRMA (Future Impacts, Risks and Mitigation Actions in a changing Earth system, K.A.N., P.R.H.), the EU Horizon 2020 project TiPACCs (Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components, 820575, J.D.R.) and a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/W011816/1, J.D.R.). Model porting and optimization was supported by the project ‘Optimizing MITgcm on ARCHER2’ (ARCHER2-eCSE02-06, K.A.N.). Computational resources were provided by the ARCHER2 UK National Supercomputing Service.
PY - 2023/11/1
Y1 - 2023/11/1
N2 - Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
AB - Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
DO - 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
M3 - Article
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 13
SP - 1222
EP - 1228
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 11
ER -
