Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

C. J. White*, Stewart Franks, D. McEvoy

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)229-234
Number of pages6
JournalIAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
Volume370
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2015
EventHS01 � Changes in Flood Risk and Perception in Catchments and Cities at the 26th IUGG General Assembly - Prague, Czech Republic
Duration: 22 Jun 20152 Jul 2015

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