Weather-Aware Energy Forecasting with NeuroFusion: A Hybrid Deep Learning and Gradient Boosting Framework

Muhammed Cavus, Jing Jiang, Hongjian Sun

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

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Abstract

Accurate forecasting of energy consumption and generation is essential for the efficient operation of smart grids, particularly in weather-sensitive environments. This study proposes a hybrid ensemble framework, NeuroFusion, which integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with extreme Gradient Boosting (XG-Boost) within a meta-learning structure. The LSTM model captures sequential and long-range temporal dependencies inherent in energy usage, while XGBoost captures non-linear interactions among meteorological variables through boosted decision trees. Combining these complementary models results in a robust and high-fidelity forecasting system that adapts to variable weather patterns. NeuroFusion was evaluated using real-world hourly datasets comprising both weather and energy data. The proposed model achieved prediction accuracies of up to 96.3% for energy generation and 91.3% for energy consumption, significantly outperforming individual base models. In terms of error reduction, NeuroFusion decreased the root mean squared error by more than 74% for consumption and over 77% for generation when compared to standalone implementations. These results confirm the efficacy of combining memory-based and gradient-based learning techniques for accurate and resilient forecasting in smart grid environments.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm)
Place of PublicationPiscataway, NJ
PublisherIEEE
Pages1-6
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9798331520847
ISBN (Print)9798331520854
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 21 Oct 2025
EventIEEE SmartGridComm 2025 - Toronto, Canada
Duration: 29 Sept 20252 Oct 2025

Conference

ConferenceIEEE SmartGridComm 2025
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityToronto
Period29/09/252/10/25

Keywords

  • smart cities
  • energy forecasting
  • machine learning
  • time-series prediction
  • demand response
  • renewable energy integration
  • Time-series prediction
  • Smart cities
  • Machine learning
  • Renewable energy integration
  • Demand response
  • Energy forecasting

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