What do people want from a welfare system? Conjoint survey evidence from UK adults

What do people want from a welfare system? Previous research has suggested a list of possible desirable features, such as that the system: reduces poverty; reduces inequality; improves mental and physical health; costs little; and rewards only the deserving. How do these different features trade off against one another to determine overall desirability? To answer this question, we conducted a conjoint survey experiment with 800 UK-resident adults. We presented them with hypothetical welfare schemes that varied on a large number of attributes. The strongest driver of preference for a scheme was its effect on poverty: people were more likely to choose schemes that reduced poverty, and less likely to choose schemes that increased it. Respondents were prepared to trade off their negative preference against higher personal income taxes against poverty: even for centre-right (Conservative party) voters, some income tax rises would be acceptable in exchange for sufficiently large reductions in the poverty rate. Taxes on wealth and carbon emissions were positively valued relative to increasing government borrowing. Respondents paid some attention to the effects of schemes on inequality and physical and mental health as well as poverty. Preferences over institutional design features to do with deservingness, such as means testing, conditionality and universality, were weak. Though there was some heterogeneity in preference by age group and political orientation, this was not very marked. We discuss the findings with respect to the envelope of welfare systems that would be publicly acceptable.