Biodiversity, range shift, climate change and land use change in the Anthropocene – the case of mammal species of Great Britain

Abstract

Climate change and land-use change are two prominent threats for the conservation of biodiversity. They both act as drivers of species’ range shifts and retractions, increasing extinction risk. Yet the extent to which they interact, possibly exacerbating each other’s effects, remains relatively unclear. Species’ spatial responses under global change are mediated by ecological traits and exposure to drivers of environmental change. Understanding these dynamics, through the assessment of biodiversity trends, can inform and support conservation efforts in future scenarios.
We used 470,013 biological records of occurrence from Great Britain to model occupancy changes and estimate trends of range retractions for 43 native mammal species ì between 1960 and 2017. We constructed a series of linear models to assess how the species’ range retractions we detected were associated with climate change, land-use change, and species’ traits. We also assessed the intensity of exposure of both species and landscapes (grid squares) to changes in climate and land-use .
Spatial responses to climate and land-use change were mostly species-specific and antagonistic, mitigating rather than exacerbating each other. Larger-bodied mammals with larger ranges and specialist life strategies were more likely to face occupancy declines, but all traits contributed to characterize species’ range responses to environmental change. Changes in temperature were the most prominent drivers of exposure to climate change for British mammals.
Our findings demonstrate the complexity of species’ responses to drivers of environmental change. Assessments of species’ range change under global change scenarios need to account for individualistic patterns of species’ responses to the interactions of climate and land-use change, as well as varying patterns of exposure to these drivers on the ground. Future scenarios for biodiversity will need to contemplate species-specific conservation plans that can mitigate the risk from, and exposure to, environmental pressures.

Date of Award	26 Jun 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Northumbria University
Supervisor	Andrew Suggitt (Supervisor) & Mike Jeffries (Supervisor)